Coverage & Health
Every source, its status, last success, and the collection-coverage calendar. Prophet shows what it does and does not know.
Ask whether the apparent picture of the world holds up.
Prophet combines open, official, operational and independent evidence. It shows what the evidence supports, where sources conflict, what remains unknown and how its forecasts perform over time. Use the Ask Prophet box above, or start from a world or a subject below.
Six Main Worlds
Popular Subjects
Featured Investigations
deep decision products — they demonstrate Prophet's depth, they are not the whole platformToday
top live changes · updated on loadElectricity Grid
PARTIAL COVERAGE Live and near-live demand, generation, imports, prices, storage and transmission constraints from public grid operators.Internet Use
PARTIAL COVERAGE Internet activity, connectivity, outages, latency, routing changes and access restrictions from independent public measurement networks.Staple Food Prices
Meat · sugar · salt · eggs · milk · bread — country-month median market prices in USD.
Prediction Ledger
Every forecast Prophet has ever issued — open, revised and resolved. Nothing is deleted; revision chains are immutable.
| Status | Forecast question | Domain | P(now) | History | Resolves | Brier |
|---|
News Intelligence
Market-relevant headlines grouped by topic. Syndicated copies collapsed. Source shown on every item — Prophet discovers, it does not rewrite.
Entity Explorer
Search by MMSI, IMO, vessel name, callsign, ICAO24, port, or country. Server-side — resolves exact identifiers first. Click a result to locate it on the map and see its latest state.
Public Track Record CONNECTING…
Rendered directly from the grading ledger, unedited — including the misses.
Sealed at issuance. Once Prophet makes a forecast, the original prediction is cryptographically sealed and chained to the one before it. It cannot be rewritten after the outcome is known, and a deleted prediction breaks the seal of every one that followed — you can check this yourself, below.
Reliability curve — forecast probability vs observed frequency
Rolling mean Brier score — 12 weeks
1 · Source Mesh OPERATIONAL — 49 public sources + 2 observation agents PLANNED — licensed AIS tiers, 40k+ news outlets
Licensed AIS & aviation feeds, weather models, customs baselines, market quotes, 40k+ news outlets. Registry tracks rights, cadence, health, replay cursors. Browser never touches a provider.
2 · Event Platform PARTIAL — Postgres event log operational; Redpanda PLANNED
Validated, timestamped, deduplicated events on a replayable log (Redpanda). Envelope v2: provenance, freshness, confidence components, data class, lineage on every record.
3 · Fusion & Features PARTIAL — deterministic fusion operational; feature store PLANNED
Entity + geo resolution across domains. Point-in-time-correct feature store: port-call rates, reroute ratios, news velocity, weather anomalies, seasonality. No leakage, ever.
4 · Forecast Engine PARTIAL — baselines + LLM interpreter operational; ensembles PLANNED
Ensembles per domain & horizon: gradient boosting, structural models, grounded-LLM judge, analyst priors. Binary, quantile and categorical outputs — each with a baseline and ranked drivers. Abstains below coverage thresholds.
5 · Resolution & Calibration COLLECTING — resolver live, 0 resolved (28-day baseline building)
Independent service grades every forecast against its stored criteria (separation of duties). Weekly calibration reports publish Brier, reliability and skill — unedited — to this dashboard and the public site.
Run the platform to see live connector status here — every source with its health, last success and detail.
The per-zone, per-day collector coverage grid appears here when the platform is running. Green = complete day (≥85% coverage, a 0 is a real 0) · orange = partial (outcome unknown) · empty = collector was not listening.
Web / PWA OPERATIONAL
Map-first dashboard, country & item workspaces, watchlists, probability-threshold alerts.
API & Streams PARTIAL — REST operational; WebSocket PLANNED
Typed REST + WebSocket. Every response carries as_of, freshness, coverage, confidence, data class, source refs.
Agents / MCP OPERATIONAL — Supply Reality Engine + two observation agents
Grounded AI briefs citing visible source records, exposing uncertainty and conflicting evidence.
Governance OPERATIONAL — rights class on every source; agent registries default-deny
Model registry, champion/challenger promotion gates, drift demotion, full audit. Decision support — not financial advice.
Availability
What is actually available — physical, commercial, exportable, deliverable, in-transit, restricted or committed — never one blended number. Every answer names what remains unknown.
Evidence
Prophet's answers are grounded in visible source records. The Evidence Mesh corroborates figures across independent sources and surfaces disagreement rather than averaging it away. Use News and Entity Explorer (below) to trace the trail.
Sources
Every connector Prophet draws on — its access class, authority, coverage and license, plus separate connection-health and data-freshness states. A source can be reachable yet publishing old data; both are shown.
Connector Control Center · operator only
Full connector status incl. masked credential state (SET / MISSING, never the secret), configured flag, quota and freshness. Requires an administrator session.